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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.